The Limits of Prediction: Why a Species’ Appetite at Home Doesn’t Foretell Its Impact Abroad
A new analysis of 269 functional response experiments across 45 freshwater fish species challenges a core assumption in invasion biology. While invasive species studied in their native ranges do show higher predatory efficiency (characterized by faster attack rates and shorter handling times) than non-invasive species, this pattern disappears when the same invaders are studied in their introduced ranges. This finding indicates that a high functional response may predispose a species to become invasive, but it is not a reliable predictor of the actual ecological impact—specifically, the trophic pressure—it will exert in a new ecosystem. The research also suggests climate warming could exacerbate competitive asymmetries, as the space clearance rates of invaders in their introduced ranges tended to increase with temperature, unlike those of native species.
Why it might matter to you: For professionals focused on biodiversity conservation and ecological risk assessment, this study necessitates a critical re-evaluation of predictive models. Relying solely on lab-based functional response data from a species’ native habitat could lead to inaccurate forecasts of its impact, potentially misdirecting management resources. This underscores the importance of incorporating post-invasion monitoring data and local ecological context into frameworks for managing invasive species and preserving ecosystem resilience.
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