Key Highlights
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A study of U.S. stock returns shows that a simple, decades-old method for predicting stock market volatility (the EWMA model) performs just as well as newer, more complex models for daily and weekly forecasts. This means investors can make effective portfolio decisions without needing overly complicated tools, even when accounting for trading costs.
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Research reveals a subtle form of discrimination where a job candidate’s rating depends on who was reviewed just before them; candidates are rated worse if they follow a white man compared to following a woman or minority. This “spillover” effect is strongest in industries or situations where direct bias is low, showing that discrimination can operate in hidden, sequential ways beyond just direct prejudice.
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An analysis of marriage records in Quebec from 1800 to 1970 finds that people have always tended to marry partners with similar social and economic status, a pattern known as assortative mating. Crucially, a woman’s own skills and education, not just her family background, influenced this matching, and mothers had a unique impact on their children’s success, highlighting women’s long-overlooked role in historical social mobility.
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A study across 39 African countries finds that poverty is directly linked to receiving lower-quality care in government hospitals, including longer waits, fewer medical supplies, and less respectful treatment. This connection only happens when people actually use these public facilities, suggesting that improving both economic conditions and the healthcare system itself is key to better health and economic outcomes.
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A model analyzing potential responses to new U.S. tariffs finds that while countries could retaliate or subsidize their industries, the best strategy for maintaining economic welfare is to sign new trade agreements with other partners. This approach helps countries find new markets with less economic distortion, suggesting that deeper international cooperation, not trade wars, is the most beneficial path forward.
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