Key Highlights
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A simple, decades-old method for predicting stock market volatility (EWMA) holds its own against modern, complex models, especially for short-term forecasts. This means investors can achieve similar or better portfolio performance with a simpler, more cost-effective tool, challenging the need for overly complicated financial models.
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Historical data from 1930s Germany shows that increasing the number of doctors significantly reduces infant and childhood disease deaths. However, the benefit of adding more doctors diminishes after a certain point, suggesting that health resources should be spread to areas with the greatest need rather than concentrated.
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When countries face new US tariffs, the best economic response is to sign new trade deals with other partners, not to retaliate with their own tariffs or subsidize their industries. This strategy of “deeper integration” leads to higher real income for the responding countries and the world, even with the US tariffs in place.
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Ghana’s economic growth since 2003 has not been accompanied by an increase in the average size of manufacturing firms, a pattern different from other developing regions. This suggests the country’s growth has not led to the typical “structural change” where firms get larger and more productive, which may limit future development.
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Asian Americans are now the fastest-growing racial group in the United States, a trend shaped by the long history of Asian immigration policy. Understanding this history is key to anticipating how future policy changes might continue to shape the nation’s demographic and social landscape.
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