Key Highlights
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A simple, widely-used method for predicting stock market volatility (the EWMA filter) performs just as well as much more complex models for daily and weekly forecasts. This means investors can make effective portfolio decisions without needing overly complicated and expensive models, especially when accounting for trading costs.
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When countries face new US tariffs, their best policy response is to sign new trade deals with other partners rather than retaliate or subsidize their own industries. This strategy of seeking deeper integration leads to higher real income for the liberalizing countries and the world, even with US tariffs in place.
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A study of General Electric in the 1940s shows that higher education provided huge returns for employees, leading to more senior positions, higher pay, and better chances of being selected for management training. This highlights how public investments in education, like land-grant colleges, were a key driver behind the rise of big corporations and professional management in America.
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In Africa, an individual’s poverty status is directly linked to receiving lower-quality healthcare at government hospitals, including longer waits, lack of supplies, and less respectful treatment. This finding shows that improving healthcare delivery is just as crucial as boosting incomes for the health and economic well-being of the continent’s poorest people.
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The “free-rider” problem in knowledge production, where people benefit from others’ research without contributing, is less severe when organizations need “absorptive capacity” to use that knowledge. This means that when firms need to invest in their own skills to benefit from new ideas, they have more incentive to contribute to creating those ideas in the first place.
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