How Phylogeny and Proximity Shape Pathogen Spillover in Bat Roosts
A new mathematical modeling framework reveals the complex interplay between evolutionary relatedness and contact frequency in driving cross-species transmission of pathogens within multi-species wildlife communities. The study, published in *Ecology*, focuses on co-roosting Neotropical bats, where interspecific transmission rates are modeled to decline exponentially with increasing phylogenetic distance. The models demonstrate that closer phylogenetic relatedness between host species generally facilitates pathogen invasion and leads to higher overall roost-level infection prevalence, particularly for pathogens with low transmissibility and short durations of infection or immunity. However, the analysis also identifies specific parameter spaces where roost-level prevalence can paradoxically increase when the co-roosting hosts are more distantly related. This research provides a generalizable tool for understanding the dynamics of pathogen spillover, a key process in evolutionary ecology and the emergence of zoonotic diseases.
Study Significance: This work advances the field of evolutionary biology by quantitatively linking phylogenetic distance—a core concept in understanding common ancestry and speciation—to real-world epidemiological outcomes. For professionals tracking disease emergence or studying coevolution, these models offer a predictive framework to assess spillover risk in diverse host communities, moving beyond simple contact metrics. The findings underscore that evolutionary history is a critical, quantifiable selective pressure shaping contemporary host-pathogen dynamics and the potential for adaptive radiation in microbial lineages.
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