Climate and Commerce: The Shifting Hazards for Harp Seals
A new integrated population model analyzing seven decades of data reveals a pivotal shift in the drivers of Northwest Atlantic harp seal population dynamics. Historically, commercial and subsistence harvests were the primary source of mortality. However, since the 1980s, the relative impact of harvest has declined while natural mortality, particularly for young-of-the-year (YOY) seals, has increased. The research identifies deteriorating sea ice conditions, linked to climate change, as a now-dominant hazard for YOY survival. The model projects that these climate-related environmental factors will continue to be the strongest influence on future population trends, surpassing the role of direct human harvest in the coming decades.
Why it might matter to you: This study provides a critical framework for understanding how climate stressors are overtaking direct exploitation as the main threat to marine wildlife populations. For professionals focused on conservation biology, wildlife management, and ecological modeling, it underscores the necessity of incorporating climate projections into population viability analyses and sustainable harvest quotas. The findings highlight that effective future conservation strategies must prioritize mitigating climate impacts on critical habitats, such as breeding ice, to maintain ecosystem resilience and biodiversity.
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